Nigeria’s manufacturing industry lost about ₦1.2 trillion between 2019 and 2023 but is showing signs of recovery, according to a new report by Quartus Economics.
The study, titled Inside Nigeria’s Quiet Recovery, reviewed the nation’s economic performance following the recent GDP rebasing by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It noted that the economy began picking up in 2024 after being weighed down by the COVID-19 pandemic and the naira redesign policy.
In 2024, GDP expanded by roughly 4.1% year-on-year. However, the four years prior — described as “years of stall” — saw manufacturing output plunge by 21%, while agriculture grew by 11% and services by only 3%, both failing to keep pace with population growth. The steep drop in manufacturing wiped out over ₦1.2 trillion in value, with more than half of Nigeria’s 46 industrial categories shrinking and nearly 20% stuck in slow growth. By the end of 2024, only seven categories were still in decline.
The sector’s rebound in 2024, though modest at 1.19% growth (₦207 billion), marked the beginning of a turnaround. Quartus Economics credited this recovery to strong performances in specific manufacturing subsectors, including:
Food, beverage & tobacco – ₦81.5 billion growth (2.50%)
Chemical & pharmaceutical products – ₦33.9 billion growth (2.37%)
Non-metallic products – ₦15.5 billion growth (1.72%)
Motor vehicles & assembly – ₦1.29 billion growth (1.27%)
Basic metal production – ₦3.33 billion growth (0.62%)
However, several segments remain under strain. The textile, apparel, and footwear industry declined by ₦72 billion (1.58%), while oil refining contracted sharply by 14.67% (₦1.7 billion). Pulp & paper saw a slight ₦1.23 billion recovery (0.44%), and electrical & electronics rose by 1.27%.
The NBS, in its Q1 2025 GDP report, revealed that the economy grew by 3.13% after rebasing, up from 2.27% in Q1 2024. The services sector was the key driver, expanding by 4.33% and contributing 57.5% to GDP, compared to 21.08% from industry.
Reacting to the data, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) said the rebased figures confirm the industrial sector’s weak performance. The association urged the federal government to prioritise manufacturing and industrialization to ensure that GDP gains reflect real economic progress.