FCMB Group Plc has projected a profit after tax (PAT) of N58.8 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, according to its latest filing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).
The earnings forecast, a regulatory requirement for listed companies, provides investors with a forward view of expected performance and offers insights into how the bank is positioning itself in a challenging operating environment. If realized, this projection would push FCMB’s full-year profit to N171.5 billion, more than double the N73 billion reported in 2024.
Looking back at its performance this year, FCMB has repeatedly exceeded its own forecasts. In Q1 2025, it projected a PAT of N31.2 billion but posted N32.2 billion. For Q2, the forecast stood at N36.6 billion, while actual results came in at N41.1 billion. In Q3, the bank anticipated N39.3 billion, with official results yet to be released. This record suggests that the Q4 forecast of N58.8 billion could be conservative, potentially offering more upside for shareholders.
On the revenue side, the lender expects gross earnings of N265.2 billion in the fourth quarter, with interest income contributing N231.8 billion. One of the major challenges the bank faced during the year was the expiry of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) loan forbearance regime, which required banks to fully recognize previously deferred impairments. In the first half of 2025, FCMB reported a total earnings write-down of N36.2 billion, with N26.7 billion of that booked in Q2 alone—well above its earlier projection of N11.3 billion. Despite this, the bank still managed to surpass profit forecasts, underscoring operational resilience. Management confirmed that FCMB has now fully exited the forbearance regime, reducing the likelihood of further major impairment shocks.
Like other Nigerian banks, FCMB also faces a recapitalization deadline from the CBN. Nairametrics estimates the lender still needs to raise about N188 billion to meet the required threshold. The bank has already made headway, raising N144.6 billion through a public offer in 2024. The CBN has verified the second phase of this raise, which included a mandatory convertible note of N22.5 billion, set to increase issued shares to around 42.8 billion units. While this progress leaves FCMB better positioned than some of its peers, additional fundraising could expose shareholders to short-term dilution risks.
At a share price of N10.5, FCMB trades at what appears to be a steep discount relative to its earnings. Based on Nairametrics’ estimate, FY 2025 earnings per share (EPS) could be around N4.30, translating to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 2.44x. By comparison, the NGX Banking Index average typically ranges between 3x and 5x. This suggests FCMB may be undervalued on a pure earnings multiple basis, though recapitalization concerns may be weighing on investor sentiment. If the bank delivers on its Q4 forecast, its forward EPS could strengthen its position as a value play in Nigeria’s banking sector, particularly for investors willing to take on the risk of equity dilution in the upcoming capital raise.