Analysts at CardinalStone have upgraded their outlook on Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO), assigning a new BUY rating and setting a 12-month target price of ₦115.93 per share.
Despite GTCO’s relatively soft half-year results, CardinalStone remains optimistic about its longer-term trajectory, citing improving fundamentals and a positive performance outlook.
The firm now expects GTCO’s net interest income to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4%, up from its earlier forecast of 13%. Gross earnings are also projected to increase by 5.3% year-on-year, reaching ₦2.2 trillion in 2025, supported by growth in interest-earning assets.
Stage 2 loans — a measure of asset quality — have declined to 1.8% from 2.6% in FY 2024, signaling improved credit strength. However, rising impairment charges, particularly from syndicated oil and gas exposure, have pushed the cost of risk forecast to 2.2% from 2.0%.
Non-interest income has been revised downward to ₦513.1 billion due to weaker performance in the first half of the year and limited foreign exchange revaluation gains.
GTCO’s shares have climbed over 64% year-to-date, currently trading around ₦94 on the Nigerian Exchange — a level some analysts view as a buying opportunity. The stock started the year near ₦57, rose to ₦68.80 by March, dipped briefly, and later recovered to break past ₦100 in the third quarter.